Where Do Refugees Go?

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LISTENING: to that rosalía finally (shout out to angely mercado)
FEELING: crampy :(
SEEING: my girly pops co-work alongside me

As of this year, over 122 million people have been forcibly displaced from their homes. The causes are varied: conflict, war, genocide, human rights violations. Now, they have something new to worry about: climate-fueled disasters.

As I wrote in my latest piece for Yale Climate Connections, a recent U.N. report estimates that some 250 million people have been displaced in the last decade due to extreme weather like floods or drought. The U.N. states that, by 2050, the 15 hottest refugee camps — all located in Sub-Saharan Africa — will have about 200 more days a year of "hazardous heat stress." Fossil fuel pollution is the main driver of climate change.

"Around the world, extreme weather is putting people’s safety at greater risk," said Filippo Grandi, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, in a press release. "These are people who have already endured immense loss, and now they face the same hardships and devastation again."

For my Yale Climate Connections story, I interviewed Andrew Harper, the special adviser on climate action to the commissioner. My story was hyper-focused on people displaced by climate change, so our discussion didn't make it into the final text. I'm exclusively sharing the conversation here with you all.

I don't read enough about the ways refugees are feeling the impacts of a heating planet. I remember reading about refugees when Storm Daniel hit Libya in 2023, killing at least 5.923 people. Before the great flood, Sudanese refugees had been seeking safety in the country after a civil war broke out back home (which, I've got to admit, I don't know enough about). Many people were displaced again.

In April, I visited the Aida refugee camp when I visited the West Bank, but we talked about the Israeli occupation and the restriction of water. We discussed food sovereignty and militarization. I hadn't thought: "What if climate change makes this land inhospitable? Where would they go next?"

Unfortunately, this is a reality too many communities are already living through. And at COP30 this year, advocates didn't let negotiators forget it.

This interview has been lightly edited for clarification and length.

YESSENIA FUNES
How is the U.N. bringing topics of refugees and climate migration into COP? Is COP the best space for this issue?

ANDREW HARPER
We can't afford to put all eggs in one basket. COP is one of many important events during the year. For UNHCR, having refugees and conflict-displaced people in the negotiations is critically important. It's not just a wish or a want because if they're not included in the definition of vulnerable populations, for instance, then they're excluded by default.

So what we seek to do when we're working with governments is to ensure that refugees are included, not only in climate adaptation plans, but also in overall development plans. There needs to be a whole society approach. Because if you don't, then again, by default, you're excluding sometimes the most vulnerable populations. We have to continuously champion the specific needs of those people who are neglected, forgotten, and excluded.

"The issues that are at play at the moment are not something happening in 2030, 2040, or 2050. They're happening now."

For instance, if you look at the fund for loss and damage, then it's really important that we lobby on behalf of governments to get funds when dollars are eventually released. When the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events are hitting these extremely poor countries, they must be supported and should not be seen as a charity. It's the right thing to do, and it's what we've been seeking to do by going to COP.

We're trying to ensure that when people talk about climate change, it's not only about coral reefs and glaciers. I'm not saying the coral reefs are not important, but we need to bring the focus back to people. The issues that are at play at the moment are not something happening in 2030, 2040, or 2050. They're happening now.

YESSENIA
The language around refugees right now is conflict-focused. Could that definition evolve? Many advocates speak of climate refugees, for example.

ANDREW
There's no room for looking at expanding definitions. We're having enough trouble and challenges ensuring the protection of people who are fleeing conflict. If you start opening up the definition for refugees to include additional groups, then it's not going to go anywhere.

Also, the vast majority of people who are being impacted by climate change and forced from their homes don't cross international borders. They stay within their country, and they're often displaced multiple times. A refugee is somebody who crosses an international border.

We should focus on reducing the level of vulnerability of those groups who are being hit time and time again by extreme weather events and making sure that they're resilient enough to withstand that. If they are forced to move, governments need to put in sufficient safeguards to ensure people can move to safer locations.

If you actually talk to some of the South Pacific islands about climate refugees, they can sort of take offense because they say, "Look, a refugee is somebody who's being persecuted, but we're not persecuting our populations. We're trying to do whatever we can to make them stay and to ensure that they're safe. It's what you guys are doing in terms of uncontrolled emissions that is making our jobs even harder. So don't call our citizens refugees."

I don't mind using the terminology. It's just not technically correct. We need to be providing support to where people are, rather than trying to recognize and protect them if they have to move.

"The issues of livelihoods, dignity, and protection are all very much linked to a sustainable climate policy."

YESSENIA
As someone who's been working on this issue for a while, why is protecting this population such an uphill battle? Is it because COP has such a focus on mitigation and emissions? Is it because of anti-immigrant sentiment?

ANDREW
One reason could be a reluctance by some states to expand their obligations to provide support and protection. It's the richest states that have this problem. And this is where you've got this hypocrisy. These are the same countries that have even higher emissions than the countries providing protection for refugees. The states that are at the forefront of climate change, including in Africa and Latin America, are absolutely champions in doing the right thing.

It's illogical that lower-income, vulnerable countries demonstrate this level of solidarity and continue to be, let's say, abused by the international system.

YESSENIA
What do you want to see happen in future COPs? What do you see as part of the solution within this existing space for refugees and displaced people?

ANDREW
It has to be a whole society approach that includes a specific focus on the most vulnerable. Climate funding and financing must be focused at the community level. That way, it's more effective and efficient and at a scale that can actually support adaptation and resilience. At the moment, there are still insignificant funds and disagreement on who is responsible.

One, we have to have a transition away from fossil fuels. The fact that we're still negotiating that is a challenge. Two, we have to come to an agreement on who should be prioritized for accessing climate funds, and then we need clear indicators of impact. You need to ensure that the money gets to the communities on the ground, particularly women, and that the money is used in a way that enhances resilience and is sustainable.

The issues of livelihoods, dignity, and protection are all very much linked to a sustainable climate policy.

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